The Historian doesn't predict the future. It looks up the past.
The Idea
Fifteen years of tournament data contains a library of archetypes. High-seed, slow-tempo, defense-first power conference teams behave the same way in March regardless of roster names. The transfer portal changes faces. It doesn't change the archetype.
For every team in the 2026 bracket, The Historian runs a similarity search against a database of tournament teams from 2010-2025. Each team is a vector across six dimensions: seed, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, tempo, strength of schedule, and coaching tenure. The closest historical match becomes that team's base prediction.
The Archetypes
Four patterns repeat reliably across the dataset:
The Chalk Giant -- 1 or 2 seed, dominant efficiency margins. Reaches Final Fours but doesn't always close it out. Championship rate: roughly 40%.
The Reliable 4 -- 3 and 4 seeds with balanced efficiency and experienced coaches. Consistently outperform their seed early, disappear in the Elite 8. Pool-killers.
The Mid-Major Disruptor -- Non-power conference, elite defense, slow tempo. Dangerous in Round 1, especially against offensive teams that can't adjust pace. The 12-over-5 upset rate is 37% when this archetype is present.
The Glass Cannon -- Explosive offense, weak defense. High ceiling, fragile floor. The most common Sweet 16 exit type in the dataset.
Making the Pick
For each matchup, the model compares both teams' historical twin outcomes. A mid-major disruptor vs. a glass cannon has resolved in favor of the disruptor 6 out of 10 times historically. The Historian picks accordingly -- not for narrative reasons, but because the pattern says so.
Honest Limitations
The dataset starts at 2010. Rare matchup combinations have thin samples. The transfer portal era (post-2021) has meaningfully changed team construction in ways older data can't fully capture. A recency weight helps, but it's imperfect.
See how the archetypes play out on the dashboard.