Meet the Models
Six fundamentally different approaches to predicting March Madness. Each model sees the tournament through a completely different lens — where they agree, pay attention. Where they diverge, that's where it gets interesting.
The Scout
LLM Matchup Analyst
“Film room intelligence at machine speed.”
Champion
Duke
Score
1030
The Quant
Monte Carlo Simulation
“10,000 simulations. Zero feelings.”
Champion
Duke
Score
1050
The Historian
Archetype Matching
“Every team has a twin. History already played this game.”
Champion
Duke
Score
1040
The Chaos Agent
Upset Detector
“Your bracket is too safe. This one isn't.”
Champion
Gonzaga
Score
710
The Optimizer
ESPN Points Maximizer
“Every other model predicts games. This one plays the scoring system.”
Champion
Illinois
Score
700
The Auto Researcher
Autonomous Strategy Optimizer
“21 strategies tested. 14 years backtested. One bracket.”
Champion
Michigan
Score
1310
Where They Agree
Duke (4 of 9 models)
The Scout, The Quant, The Historian, and The Scout Prime all pick Duke to cut down the nets. The Auto Researcher goes with Michigan. The contrarian bloc splits between Illinois (Super Agent, Optimizer), Houston (Agent), and Gonzaga (Chaos Agent).
Four models — The Scout, The Quant, The Historian, and The Scout Prime — have the identical Final Four: all four 1-seeds. The Auto Researcher swaps Florida for Houston (2-seed). Duke makes 8 of 9 Final Fours — only The Optimizer leaves them out.
Where They Disagree
The chalk bloc agrees on Duke, but the path there splits. The contrarian models each tell a completely different story.
Three completely different teams winning the region. Michigan (6 models), Iowa State (1), Texas Tech (2). The path diverges as early as the Round of 32.
Chalk Bloc
The Scout, The Quant, The Historian, and The Scout Prime trust the 1-seeds. All four make the Final Four. Duke wins. The Auto Researcher is close but swaps in Houston over Florida and picks Michigan to win it all.
Contrarian Bloc
The Chaos Agent and The Optimizer bet on mid-seeds. Zero 1-seeds in The Optimizer's Final Four. The Agent goes with Houston. Gonzaga, Illinois, and Houston as champions.
The Agent bets on Houston — elite defense, Kelvin Sampson's 4 Final Fours, and a de facto home game at Toyota Center.
Most models have Louisville out by the Sweet 16. The Optimizer has them in the Final Four. Same team, wildly different reads.