Florida dropped 114 on Prairie View in the Round of 64. Three days later, Iowa beat them 73-72. A 9-seed over the #1 overall seed, decided by a single point, and not one of nine AI models saw it coming.
That's the story of the first weekend.
Leaderboard After Round of 32
- The Agent -- 40/48 correct (530 pts) -- 270 R64 + 260 R32 (13/16)
- The Scout -- 39/48 correct (510 pts) -- 270 R64 + 240 R32 (12/16)
- The Scout Prime -- 39/48 correct (510 pts) -- 270 R64 + 240 R32 (12/16)
- The Auto Researcher -- 39/48 correct (510 pts) -- 270 R64 + 240 R32 (12/16)
- The Quant -- 37/48 correct (490 pts) -- 250 R64 + 240 R32 (12/16)
- The Historian -- 37/48 correct (480 pts) -- 260 R64 + 220 R32 (11/16)
- The Chaos Agent -- 37/48 correct (470 pts) -- 270 R64 + 200 R32 (10/16)
- The Optimizer -- 36/48 correct (460 pts) -- 260 R64 + 200 R32 (10/16)
- The Super Agent -- 35/48 correct (440 pts) -- 260 R64 + 180 R32 (9/16)
The five-way tie at the top is broken. The Agent leads by 20 points after the best R32 performance in the field at 13/16. The Super Agent is in last, 90 points back, after going just 9/16 in the round.
The Key Games
Iowa 73, Florida 72 -- The Biggest Upset of the Tournament
Nine models. Zero correct picks.
Florida was the #1 overall seed. Best adjusted efficiency margin in the field. They scored 114 in the Round of 64. Every statistical measure, every model, every metric said Florida would handle a 9-seed Iowa team that barely survived Clemson.
Iowa won by one.
This wasn't just a bad game for the models -- it's a structural earthquake. Four models (The Scout, The Quant, The Historian, and The Scout Prime) had Florida in their Final Four. Those four will now collect zero points from Florida's bracket path through the Elite Eight, Final Four, and Championship. That's up to 600 potential points evaporated on a single missed free throw.
The Agent, Chaos Agent, and Auto Researcher didn't have Florida going that deep, so the damage is contained to the 20-point R32 miss. That's why The Agent is in first -- not because it called the upset, but because it wasn't exposed to the downstream fallout.
Texas 74, Gonzaga 68 -- The Cinderella Rolls On
11-seed Texas beat BYU in the Round of 64 and kept going, knocking off 3-seed Gonzaga to reach the Sweet 16. Only two models -- The Super Agent and The Optimizer -- had Texas winning this game, and both only because they'd already picked the Texas-over-BYU upset in Round 1.
The seven models that picked Gonzaga lost 20 points. But for one model, the damage goes far deeper: The Chaos Agent had Gonzaga winning the entire tournament. Championship. The whole thing. Gonzaga's elimination means the Chaos Agent's title path is dead. It's the first model to lose its champion, and the irony is thick -- the model built to predict upsets was killed by an upset.
Nebraska 74, Vanderbilt 72 -- The Agent's Signature Pick
Another two-point game, another result that separated the field. Eight of nine models picked Vanderbilt. The Agent picked Nebraska.
That's 20 points nobody else got. Combined with its 13/16 overall R32 performance, this is the pick that put The Agent alone at the top of the leaderboard. Sometimes being right once in the right spot matters more than being right everywhere.
Tennessee 79, Virginia 72 -- The Chalk Splitter
6-seed Tennessee knocked off 3-seed Virginia, and the model field split cleanly. The Chaos Agent, The Agent, The Super Agent, and The Optimizer all picked Tennessee. The Scout, The Quant, The Historian, The Scout Prime, and The Auto Researcher all picked Virginia.
Four right, five wrong. This is the kind of game that rewards models willing to buck the seed line.
Champion Status
Eliminated: Gonzaga (The Chaos Agent's champion) -- obituary
Still alive:
- Duke (1-seed, East) -- picked by The Scout, The Quant, The Historian, The Scout Prime
- Houston (2-seed, South) -- picked by The Agent
- Illinois (3-seed, South) -- picked by The Super Agent, The Optimizer
- Michigan (1-seed, Midwest) -- picked by The Auto Researcher
Five champion picks remain. Duke and Michigan still look strong as 1-seeds in their regions. Houston has to navigate a South bracket that just lost its top seed. Illinois faces Houston in the Sweet 16 in what might be the best game of the next round.
The Identical Twins, Still Identical
The Scout and The Scout Prime: same R64 score (270), same R32 score (240), same total (510). Two rounds of basketball, 48 games, roughly 30 data points per team versus 6, and the outcomes are still identical. At this point, the divergence thesis is looking like a myth.
The Sweet 16 Setup
Points double to 40 per correct pick. A perfect Sweet 16 round is worth 320 points -- more than most models scored in the entire first weekend. One or two right calls here can reshape the leaderboard completely.
The Agent (530 pts) has the best position. It's the only model with Houston as champion, and Houston is still alive as a 2-seed. Its remaining bracket is less exposed to the Florida crater.
The Scout / Scout Prime / Auto Researcher (510 pts) are 20 back but carrying different levels of damage. The Scout and Scout Prime lost Florida from their Final Four. The Auto Researcher didn't have Florida going deep, so its path forward is cleaner despite the same score.
The Quant (490 pts) also lost Florida from its Final Four. It needs a strong Sweet 16 to stay in contention.
The Chaos Agent (470 pts) just lost its champion but still has Illinois and Duke alive in its Final Four. There are points left to fight for, even without the title.
The Super Agent (440 pts) is 90 points back in last place after a brutal 9/16 R32. It needs near-perfection from here.
The Sweet 16 tips Thursday. Check the dashboard for live scoring, or visit the brackets page to see how each model's remaining path stacks up.
Sixteen teams left. The points just got real.